New-patient economics

At $340 per paid consult, the math is brutal.

Paid acquisition burns cash until patient seven. Organic compounds at month four and never stops. Here's the model — assumption-by-assumption, defensibly.

For CFOs and clinic owners weighing paid vs. organic · shareable PDF
Model · clinic $6,800 avg package · 18-mo LTV
Paid acquisition
CAC per consult$340
Close rate → package14%
Cost per $6,800 package$2,430
Breakeven monthMonth 9
Halting spendTraffic → 0
LTV / CAC @ 18mo2.4×
Organic + GEO
Year-1 investment$82k
Attributable consults / mo21
Cost per consult (amortized)$107
Breakeven monthMonth 4
Halting spendTraffic compounds
LTV / CAC @ 18mo7.6×
3.1×
Organic vs. paid CPA at steady state
Month 4
Typical organic inflection point
7.6×
LTV / CAC at 18 months
Assumptions, named

No model is better than its inputs. Here are ours — swap them for yours.

When you request the clinic-specific version, we replace each row below with your actual numbers from your PMS or CRM and re-run the projection.

Avg package revenue$6,800
Patient LTV, 18 months$18,400
Consult → package close rate38%
Blended paid CAC (Meta + Google, Q1 2026)$340
Year-1 GEO + SEO engagement$82k
Attributable organic consults / mo (steady state)21
Model compounding horizon24 months
Inflection timeline

When organic passes paid. Month-by-month, no hand-waving.

Month 0–3
Paid carries load. Organic is in build phase. Cash flow negative. Expected.
Month 4
First ranked pages drive measurable consults. Paid begins to come off the gas.
Month 6
Organic CPA crosses under paid CPA. Inflection.
Month 9
Paid investment breakeven on first cohort. Organic already profitable on marginal dollar.
Month 12+
Paid is tactical (launches, promotions). Organic is the chassis — and it keeps compounding.
What this model doesn't claim

Hedges we write into every forecast, so the downside doesn't surprise you.

Not guaranteed

Search rankings are probabilistic. The projection is a forecast, not a promise — and the engagement is month-to-month so the decision stays in your hands every month.

Not linear

Organic acquisition has lumpy onset. Expect a slow first quarter, then a step-change. Paid fills the valley in the interim.

Not universal

Ultra-competitive metros (NYC, LA, SF) take 2–3 extra months to reach inflection. We flag this in every audit.

Not a replacement for brand

Organic is the acquisition chassis. Reputation, doctor credentials, and clinical outcomes still determine the consult-to-package close rate.

Case studies

What the math looks like at real clinics.

Rapamycin clinic

Alpine Longevity, Austin

Ranked #1 for "rapamycin doctor Austin" in 42 days. Now cited in Google's AI Overview for the query.

+142%cash-pay consults · Q/Q
Med spa

Meridian Wellness, Denver

Captured 17 of 20 tracked metro queries for peptide therapy and NAD+ IV within one quarter.

17/20metro queries won
Telehealth

Horizon Health

Organic clicks from evidence-based content surpassed paid acquisition by month five.

3.1×organic vs. paid CPA

Your numbers. Our model. One defensible PDF.

Send us your URL and baseline CAC. We'll plug your numbers into the model and return a CFO-ready projection within 48 hours.

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